We’ve all gotten used to the NFL playoffs of the 2020s. In the AFC, the Chiefs always get the number one seed, with the Bills and Ravens following close behind at 2-3, while in the NFC, the 49ers, Lions, and Eagles have all recently dominated the landscape. However, this season’s playoff picture midway through week 13 completely turns this repetitive history on its head. Following Thanksgiving’s slate of games and Black Friday’s important matchup, the Chiefs and Lions are both on the outside looking in to the playoffs, while divisional rival Broncos and Bears hold the number 2 seeds in their respective conferences. In this article, we’re going to examine each conference’s current playoff picture, and my predictions for how things will eventually settle.

First, we’ll start with the AFC:

Current AFC Playoff Picture:

• New England Patriots: 10-2

• Denver Broncos: 9-2

• Indianapolis Colts: 8-3

• Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-5

• Los Angeles Chargers: 7-4

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-4

• Buffalo Bills: 7-4

On The Bubble:

• Houston Texans: 6-5

• Kansas City Chiefs: 6-6

• Baltimore Ravens: 6-6

To cure any confusion as to why the Steelers are the number 4 seed above teams with better records, the NFL uses a playoff system based on divisions, where the top team from each division gets the 1-4 seeds, while the remaining three playoff spots in each conference are given to the best three teams remaining from any of the conferences four divisions. Notably sitting atop the AFC is unexpectedly the New England Patriots, spearheaded by an MVP caliber season from quarterback Drake Maye. Despite having the league’s weakest overall schedule, a current 0.351 win percentage amongst teams that they play in the regular season this year, the Patriots have still undeniably had a strong season and deserve one of the top seeds in the AFC. Despite some tough matchups against Buffalo and Kansas City to end the season, I still predict that New England will conclude the regular season as the AFC’s number one seed. The other top two teams in the AFC are also surprises, with the Denver Broncos currently on an 8 game win streak after starting the season 1-2, and the Colts serving as the league’s biggest overall surprise this year. The Steelers and Ravens are currently in an intense race for the number 4 seed, with each seemingly trying to hand the other first place in the division at every possible turn. Following the Ravens shocking 1-5 start, the team rumbled back with 5 straight wins to enter Thanksgiving first in the division at 6-5, only to get embarrassed by the now 4-7 Cincinnati Bengals on primetime television. The Steelers and Ravens have two matchups against each other in the final five games of the season, first in week 14 and a matchup in week 18, that may just have a playoff spot on the line for each team. Both the Texans and Chiefs serve as very menacing bubble teams, with the Texans holding one of the league’s best defenses and getting back quarterback CJ Stroud from injury in week 13, and the Chiefs obviously spearheaded by future hall-of-fame quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and a scary (yet inconsistent) offense. The matchup between Kansas City and Houston in week 14 will all but knock one of them out of the playoffs, while the other will have a very decent shot at clawing their way to a playoff berth. As for a team that could be seen falling out of the picture, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been marred by heavy inconsistency on both offense and defense, and play two games against the Colts and a game against the Broncos in their final six games. Pair losses in those games with what would admittedly be an upset loss in their two remaining games against the Titans and game against the Jets, and it seems possible that the Jaguars be the team knocked out from the current playoff picture. 

Jamie’s AFC Prediction:

• New England Patriots

• Denver Broncos

• Indianapolis Colts

• Baltimore Ravens

• Buffalo Bills

• Los Angeles Chargers

• Kansas City Chiefs

Next, let’s look at the NFC:

Current NFC Playoff Picture:

• Los Angeles Rams: 9-2

• Chicago Bears: 9-3

• Philadelphia Eagles: 8-4

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-5

• Seattle Seahawks: 8-3

• Green Bay Packers: 8-3-1

• San Francisco 49ers: 8-4

On The Bubble:

• Detroit Lions: 7-5

• Dallas Cowboys: 6-5-1

•  Carolina Panthers: 6-6

Overall, the NFC playoff picture feels slightly more concrete. Each of the top 7 teams definitely feel superior to the conference’s wild card options, even the 6-5 Buccaneers currently receiving the same benefit the Steelers received earlier. However unlike the Steelers, they seem much more likely to win the division in comparison to their close behind division rivals, in this case the Panthers. At the top of the conference is the Los Angeles Rams, a team also spearheaded by an MVP caliber season from its quarterback Matthew Stafford, and simply dominant play from both its offense and defense. Contrary to the Patriots, the Rams have had a much tougher schedule, with massive wins against playoff teams like the Colts, 49ers, and Seahawks. At this point in the season, I would currently easily rate the Los Angeles Rams as the scariest and most menacing team in the league headed into the playoffs. The Rams are followed behind tightly in their own conference by the Seattle Seahawks, a team that would likely be the number one seed if it weren’t for its division rival’s dominance. The Seahawks have flourished on offense with new quarterback Sam Darnold at the helm, with wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba a real threat to become the first wide receiver ever to surpass the mark of 2,000 receiving yards in a season. The undeniably stacked division also houses the 49ers, a team that has grinded its way to an 8-4 record despite being decimated by injuries across the roster. The NFC’s number two seed is also a very tight race amongst division rivals, with the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers separated by just half a game in the division. Each team seems to have gotten into a bit of a rhythm, with the Bears winning five straight games and the Packers winning three straight games. These two teams match up twice in three weeks from weeks 14-16. If either team manages to secure victories in both games, it would be shocking to see that team not manage to secure the second seed in the NFC. As for wild card threats that could sneak their way into the playoffs, the Detroit Lions would likely make the playoffs in most any other season, and The Dallas Cowboys are red hot, upsetting both the Eagles and Chiefs, last year’s two super bowl teams, in back to back weeks. However, because of the stacked nature of the conference this year, barring a sudden slide from Green Bay, Chicago, or San Francisco, the playoff picture seems fairly set.

Jamie’s NFC Prediction:

• Los Angeles Rams

• Green Bay Packers

• Philadelphia Eagles

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Seattle Seahawks

• Chicago Bears

• San Francisco 49ers

No matter what happens in this year’s playoffs, one thing remains clear. This is by far the most refreshing playoffs we’ve seen in years. In past years, it became obvious that the conferences’ top teams would remain fairly consistent year after year, which makes this season extra special. Nobody truly feels destined to win it all easily. I think we’re destined for a very fun playoffs this year, and while I’ll be pulling for my Packers to win it all, I think we’re all excited to watch some very entertaining football.