{"id":3284,"date":"2024-03-01T00:00:27","date_gmt":"2024-03-01T06:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/?p=3284"},"modified":"2024-03-02T23:10:34","modified_gmt":"2024-03-03T05:10:34","slug":"what-should-win-and-what-will-win-at-this-years-oscars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/3284\/arts-entertainment\/what-should-win-and-what-will-win-at-this-years-oscars\/","title":{"rendered":"What Should Win and What Will Win At This Year’s Oscars"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2024 Academy Awards are this month on the 23rd. Though it seems like every year the Oscars lose a smidge more credibility in the public eye, as an annoying movie fan I still feel obligated to put in my 2 cents on the proceedings. This past year provided a plethora of fantastic films, from staggering historical biopics to a host of exciting animated films to record-shattering blockbusters. With all of the great movies released and nominated at this year\u2019s Oscars, there\u2019s likely a number 1 pick for everybody. In this article, I\u2019ll be going through mine, as well as the movies I believe the Oscars will pick for the win based on their (often questionable) past choices. I\u2019ll only be covering the primary categories\/the ones where I’ve seen most of the nomineees, so if you wanted to hear my opinions on the animated short films of 2023, you may be disappointed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Best Actor\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 My Pick: Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy<\/b><\/p>\n

While the year has been a fantastic one for male performances, there are few that will be remembered in the years to come quite like Cillian Murphy as the titular man in Oppenheimer. The entire film rests on the complexities and contradictions of the man Murphy portrays, with the screenplay reportedly being written mostly from a first person perspective. That’s an enormous amount of work for an actor to shoulder, and yet Murphy carries that weight with impressive nuance and depth. He\u2019s my personal pick, and based on other awards\u2019 ceremony\u2019s acclaim for his performance and the Oscar\u2019s love for biopics, he\u2019s likely the Academy\u2019s too.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Supporting Actor<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 My Pick: Poor Things, Mark Ruffalo<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Oppenheimer, Robert Downey Jr.<\/b><\/p>\n

There is no world where RDJ does not take home the award for <\/span>Oppenheimer<\/span><\/i> this year: he\u2019s an actor in a historical film smothered in transformative makeup doing A Voice, with the added bonus of it being essentially a return to \u201cserious\u201d films for the longtime MCU actor. He\u2019s won the award in every other major award show\u2014 he\u2019s going to win this one, and deservingly so. However, I can\u2019t help but confess my love for the other \u201cserious\u201d MCU alum performance this year, which could not be on the more opposite end of the spectrum to RDJ\u2019s. Mark Ruffalo\u2019s performance in <\/span>Poor Things <\/span><\/i>is gloriously cartoonish, playing an archetypal roguish womanizer with the level of commitment and energy most actors would strive to invest a fraction of in a more serious role. Most importantly, he\u2019s just so, so funny, a high bar of praise when competing with the likes of Ryan Gosling as Ken. Perhaps RDJ gave the \u201cbetter\u201d performance, but Ruffalo\u2019s was the one I could\u2019ve kept watching for at least 2 hours longer.<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Actress<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 My Pick: Killers of the Flower Moon, Lily Gladstone<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Poor Things, Emma Stone<\/b><\/p>\n

Out of every performance nominated, few did so much with so (proportionally) little screen time as Lily Gladstone in <\/span>Killers of the Flower Moon,<\/span><\/i> 100% earning her nomination as a \u201cLead\u201d actress and commanding the screen every minute she was present. Her role as Molly is certainly a difficult one to portray well on paper: she has to convincingly appear both like a woman grieving the deaths of her family and tribe and like someone who\u2019d fall in love with one of the killers. That’s a balance which would be all too easy to fumble, but Gladstone executes the role with astounding empathy and emotional power. Molly feels human in every gesture, from the early scenes of burdened smiles shared between her sisters or Leonardo DiCaprio\u2019s Earnest to the wails of mourning and terror she lets loose in the second half. Even when she\u2019s reduced to playing out being sickly and bed ridden in the second half, Gladstone still manages to deliver her scenes with surprising nuance and believability. Just based off the other awards shows and the Academy\u2019s love for *Big* performances, Emma Stone is the likely winner, but Lily Gladstone has to take it for me.<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Supporting Actress<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 My Pick: The Holdovers, Da\u2019Vine Joy Randolph<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Barbie, America Ferrara<\/b><\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot of buzz around America Ferrara\u2019s nomination in this category, notably in the context of her getting nominated while Margot Robbie got snubbed, but no matter how good or not Ferrara\u2019s performance is, she would stand no chance in any year for me against Da\u2019Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Randolph is the emotional lynchpin of the entire film, playing a mother grieving her son\u2019s death in Vietnam with as much nuance and personality as the role deserves. Her performance is a necessary anchor to the film, both to balance out the masculine repression of the other two clears and to provide a clear warmth at the center of the otherwise very, very cold film.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Cinematography<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 My Pick: Poor Things, Robbie Ryan<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Oppenheimer, Hoyte Van Hoytema<\/b><\/p>\n

Ironically, it\u2019s my two least favorite movies here that I think are also the best looking (<\/span>Poor Things and Maestro<\/span><\/i>). Admittedly, I haven\u2019t seen <\/span>El Conde<\/span><\/i>, so I could swipe either that \u201cBest Looking\u201d or \u201cLeast Favorite\u201d title when I do, but for now, my personal pick will have to be <\/span>Poor Things<\/span><\/i>. Few films are as colorful or inventive in their visual style, either in this year or in the decade prior to it, and few films especially just look as good doing it. <\/span>Poor Things <\/span><\/i>demonstrates both a mastery of lighting and fantastical compositions, aided by one of the most creative uses of digital backgrounds I\u2019ve seen since the technique was adopted. However, since the Oscars hate color and anything obviously digital, this award will likely go to <\/span>Oppenheimer,<\/span><\/i> whose shallow focus period-realist style conforms to the Oscars\u2019 preferences much more.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Director<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 My Pick: Killers of the Flower Moon, Martin Scorsese<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan<\/b><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve seen every nominee in this category and yet this was easily the hardest choice to make, with every director, from the established figures like Nolan to less prolific yet no less deserving surprises like Triet, bringing something vital and captivating to their respective films. That being said, Scorsese\u2019s work on <\/span>Killers of the Flower Moon<\/span><\/i> would win in my book most any year, being both characteristically controlled and brilliant and somehow groundbreaking for the 81 year old auteur. As far as the Academy\u2019s pick, while I\u2019d say it\u2019s anybody\u2019s game in this category, <\/span>Oppenheimer<\/span><\/i> has already sweeped the other major award shows in this category, and after 2 decades of directing films, I\u2019ve got a feeling the Academy is ready to hand Nolan a win.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Editing<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 My Pick: Oppenheimer, Jennifer Lame<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Oppenheimer, Jennifer Lame<\/b><\/p>\n

Once again, <\/span>Killers of the Flower Moon<\/span><\/i> and <\/span>Oppenheimer <\/span><\/i>remain as the standouts, with both taking titanic runtimes and managing to make them feel not only engaging but fully necessary in their scale. But nothing can beat <\/span>Oppenheimer <\/span><\/i>here for me; it\u2019s a film that works solely off of its edit, expertly crosscutting between time periods and vital moments with an ease and intentionality that is necessary to both the experience and ideas of the film. It also has the flashiest editing out of the bunch, so based on the ceremony\u2019s history, it\u2019s also the most likely to take home the award.<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Picture<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2014 My Pick: Killers of the Flower Moon<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2014 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Oppenheimer<\/b><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve talked at length in this article and others about my love for <\/span>Killers of the Flower Moon<\/span><\/i>, so I feel weird spouting its praises as the best of the year again here, as much as it deserves it\u2014 so I won\u2019t! Instead, I want to comment on how fantastic so many of the nominees are this year: though I haven\u2019t selected them for near as many wins, I feel the need to highlight <\/span>Poor Things, Past Lives, The Holdovers, Anatomy of a Fall, <\/span><\/i>and <\/span>The Zone of Interest<\/span><\/i>, which are all incredible, diverse, brilliant pieces of cinema that offer something special to the Best Picture pool this year. Even the ones I like less, such as <\/span>Maestro <\/span><\/i>or <\/span>American Fiction<\/span><\/i>, still feel well made, and are a definite cut above the low-tier nominees of previous years. Meanwhile, <\/span>Barbie <\/span><\/i>and\u00a0 <\/span>Oppenheimer<\/span><\/i>\u2019s success at both the box office and at awards show an exciting progression for both the type of films that get popular among general audiences and the recognition of these popular films as equal art by awards show, and as much as I do think <\/span>Barbie <\/span><\/i>is a fantastically crafted piece of pop-art, it\u2019s <\/span>Oppenheimer <\/span><\/i>that I think will take home the ultimate award on March 10th based on previous awards shows and the Oscars overpowering love for biopics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Adapted Screenplay<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2014 My Pick: Poor Things, Yorgos Lanthimos<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2014 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Barbie, Greta Gerwig and Noah Bambauch<\/b><\/p>\n

This is another category where it\u2019s anybody\u2019s game for me; the screenplays aren\u2019t the standout aspect of any of these nominees for me, which makes it difficult for me to decide. In the end, I have to hand it to <\/span>Poor Things<\/span><\/i> as my personal pick.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Original Screenplay<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 My Pick: May December, Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2013 The Academy\u2019s Pick: Anatomy of a Fall, Justine Triet and Arthur Harari<\/b><\/p>\n

The fact that this is <\/span>May December<\/span><\/i>\u2019s only nomination is a crime equal to the snubbing of Nope way back at the 2023 Academy Awards, but if it had to be any category (aside from Supporting Actor for Charles Melton), I\u2019m glad it was this. <\/span>May December\u2019<\/span><\/i>s script is a masterfully knotty piece of writing, incorporating melodrama and deeply uncomfortable ideas in a way that is never overplayed whilst never shying away from the horrifying facts at its center. It\u2019s a balancing act of tone that is made all the more impressive by the fact that it is writers Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik\u2019s first feature length credit (aside from a Road Runner movie Warner Bros threw in the trash in 2022, yet another cinematic crime equal to the snubbing of Charles Melton). Overall, <\/span>May December <\/span><\/i>is the obvious choice for me, which is why the Oscars will likely give the award to <\/span>Anatomy of a Fall.<\/span><\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 2024 Academy Awards are this month on the 23rd. Though it seems like every year the Oscars lose a smidge more credibility in the public eye, as an annoying movie fan I still feel obligated to put in my 2 cents on the proceedings. This past year provided a plethora of fantastic films, from…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,8],"tags":[218],"staff_name":[166],"class_list":["post-3284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arts-entertainment","category-opinions","tag-march-24","staff_name-max-knight"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3284"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3284\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3326,"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3284\/revisions\/3326"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3284"},{"taxonomy":"staff_name","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/memorialswordandshield.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/staff_name?post=3284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}